- Outlook EUR / USD is positive in the middle of the Hawkish ECB and a weaker dollar.
- Tariff concerns and drops, CPI, continue to strive on the dollar.
- Trading talks and American PPIs remain events in the center of attention for now.
Outlook EUR / USD remains strong bulb while a couple of interrupts of multi-succesful height, approximately 1,1600 during the European session. The COLD US CPI printing weighed on Wednesday strongly to the US dollar, borrowing at the euro to maintain momentum.
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The federal reserve can reduce the flight rates because it suggests a series of negative data. According to the Feventh tool, the probability of reducing the rate in September increased to 60% from 50% earlier.
The milder recovery of dollars in the middle of a trading truce between the US and China remained short-lived as President Trump announced that he writes letters to trade partners who did not show that he was not negotiable in good faith.
There is no major event from the eurozone this week. However, a series of comments from ECB members revealed a message of Chief of Lagard’s ending of the monetary policy cycle after reducing rates up to 200 Bps on eight meetings.
Moreover, Lagard also stressed the role of the euro as a global backup currency due to the current economic shift. She said that the role of the euro could be intensified in international trade due to currency shift.
At the foreign front, EU negotiations can remain in the spotlight because we approach the deadline of 09. July. EU officials believe that the period will be extended.
Key events in front
- US PPI
- Unemployment Notices USA
EUR / USD Technical Outlook: The bulls target for 1,1600 interruptions
EUR / USD Set above its swing high than 1,1580 marks 21. April. Bullish Trendline and 20-day SMA continues to maintain purchase pressure. However, the daily value of the RSI is close to 70.0, which indicates something overloaded state.
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Alternatively, clear autumn below the 20-day SMA can change the feeling. Both 20th and trendline support match around 1,1350.
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