- EUR / USD held a narrow range in the midst of conflicting ECB and fed expectations.
- Dollar has found the support of strong American data and tokov from secure at the tariff haven.
- The next week ECB meeting and PMI eurozone will be key catalysts.
EUR / USD pair has been defensively traded, floating about 1,1600 marks. The early power in the euro faded the second week as traders reviewed the position of the European Bank (ECB) in the light of global trade insecurity and softer regional data.
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American data was surprised upside down while retail sales rose faster than expected, and job-free claims remained low, she strengthened the narrative that the Fed could run rates longer. Meanwhile, Trump’s comments about potentially expanding tariffs on European imports added a layer of feeling without risk that favors dollar as a safe haven.
Nevertheless, the inflation of the eurozone remained stable, and the ECB officials held a neutral tone, with markets that now expect the ECB to maintain steady in July. It was said, the tone of the press conference on Thursday will be critical, mainly if the President of Lagard contact trading or suggests in September in terms of mitigation.
Key events next week for EUR / USD
The focus will switch to indicators that look forward, with the decision on ECB assessment and PMI eurozone in the center of attention:
- ECB Policy Decision and Press Conferences: Stops are expected to remain unchanged, but any briefed shift or concern over the tariff could be pressed euro.
- German and Eurozone PMIS: Soft reading could collect growth concerns, especially if the contracts are further contracted.
- American preliminary PMIS and lasting orders for goods: May affect a dollar moment if the data surprises upside down.
Markets will also react to current geopolitical titles, especially development in the USA Trade.
EUR / USD Sunday Technical Analysis: Make or break at 1,1600
The daily for EUR / USD depicts a slightly bear momentum because the price has become below the 20-day SMA. However, the SMA still shows up. The price moved lower, but found support below 1,1600 marks. If the price is held, the couple can jump to 1,1700.
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Alternatively, if the support is discontinued, the price can target 100-day SMA at 1,1500 per night of another support in 1,1455. The RSI is neutral, it floats around 50.0 levels, indicating that a couple requires an incentive to move any way.
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