- EUR / USD Price Slips below 1,1770, under pressure of weaker German data and cautious meat messages that announced the US dollar.
- ORDER Narrative Moving: Powell remains cautious on cuts, quiet calls for more painful mitigation, but markets scale back into two parts 2025 feet.
- Euro Outlook remains fragile, with the production of weaknesses and pressures related to tariffs that deal with resistance sectors.
The price of EUR / USD, which reached the top height yesterday above 1,1800, slipped into the middle of 1,1700 due to sour markets and crashes of German data. The German Business Climate Index in IFO reported a weaker feeling, reducing optimism for the coming months.
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On the other hand, the US dollar regained traction after the FED chair, along with the danger of inflation, together with the fragile perspective labor market. A cautious open door tone opened for further reduction. Moreover, diverging voices in food to further complicate the situation. Governor Bowman called to reduce faster rates to protect the job market, while Stephen Miranened at excellent policy. However, markets no longer have prices in two more cuts of the course this year, revealing the transition of expectations.
On data data, American Flash PMI data confirmed the deceleration of activities in the second consecutive month in September. The composite index came at 53.6 against expected 54.0. The entrance costs increased as the output prices softened, squeezing margins. However, reading above 50.0 suggests resistance, supporting the caution of Fed.
On the other hand, data PMI eurozone showed a mixed scenario, as production was slipped to 49.5 against expected 50.7, while services increased to 51.2, more than 51.0. Divergence emphasizes the increased reliance of Europe on services, while production remains vulnerable.
Key events in front
- American new house house for sale (Wednesday): Data focus, failing consumer and accommodation resistance.
- President San Francisco Fed gave a speech (Wednesday): It can provide the clarity of division division into phenographic policies.
- US inflation (Friday): A significant risk event; The soft print can temporarily raise EUR / USD compared to 1,1800.
- EUROZONE Economic Data (IFO, Dance Tracking): Permanent signs of production weakness will see for the euro.
- Fed November Meeting: The ultimate driver of the medium-term EUR / USD level, as political divergence becomes clearer.
EUR / USD Technical price analysis: Bear gathering tempo near the channel support
EUR / USD 4-hour graph shows consolidation of price sharing within the channel growth. The price was moved below the 20-period of the MA, aimed at testing the channel support about 1,1730. Upcoming 200 Periods Support in 1,1700.
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On the side, imminent resistance occurs at the confluence of 20- and 50-periods MAS near 1.1780. It’s ahead of us at 1,1820 yesterday. However, the path of the least resilience lies on the lower side because the channel support looks vulnerable.
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