- The AUD / USD forecast remains as if the couple climb close to 0.6630 in the middle of a stronger credited Australian data on CPI data.
- The Fed is still cautious to reduce rates, and Powell is emphasizing the risks of inflation, while Bowman is committed to faster mitigation to protect the labor market.
- The RBA is considered more of a fed fed, with Barclaim, predicting AUD to break over its long trading month in K4.
The price AUD / USD is traded above the handle of 0.6600 during the European session on Wednesday. The gain has in spite of firms in the dollar. This move came despite the notes of the Fed Stolic, which reiterated that the risk of inflation remains high and the Fed may not be in a hurry to reduce speed.
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The American dollar index (DXI) gained above 97.00, reflecting the wider resistance to the dollar. Powell pointed out that the current range of interest rates keeps well set to answer future development events, signaling flexibility, but reluctance to speed up alleviation. Contrary, the fed Governor Bowman claimed to decrease faster to deal with the softening of the labor market, revealing division within the FOMC.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar surpassed its peers as the Australian CPI data came in the municipality at 3% per annum (I / I), against expected 2.9%. Marked the highest reading since July 2024. year, indicating adhesive inflation and deterred the backup banks to reduce rates on their next policy meeting.
According to Barclay Bank, AUD / USD will be expected to break the range 0.64-0.66, which is in force in recent months. The Bank lists larger prices of goods and Hawkish RBA as tail winds, while Fed seems to make it easier.
Key events in front
- RBA Policy Meeting (next week): The market focuses on whether the CPI’s significant data delays expected interruptions.
- American Economic Data (GDP, PCE inflation): Critically for paths on phenomenous politics and firmness.
- November RBA meeting: Markets still prices in potential mitigation; Inflation and labor market data will be crucial.
- Fed Communication and November meeting: All signs of policy divergence between FED and RBA will be crucial for the AUD / USD direction.
AUD / USD Technical forecast: Correction Downs
Recent 2% withdrawal from 17. September September 0,6700 to 0.6570 areas looks corrective, with the probability of publishing another leg. The price remains above the estuary of 20- and 100-period MA on the 4-hour table. However, the gains could be closed for the 50-period MA at 0.6630. Consolidation of MAS signals because there is no clear short-term trend.
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Strong support is visible in the MAZY 200-period located near 0.6550, while the ultimate resistance is set nearby 0.6700. Multifinally requires a catalyst to break out of consolidation.
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