- EUR / USD price remains soft in the middle of the French political crisis and worry about growth growth.
- The US dollar finds the base despite the alleviation of geopolitical risk after the agreement of Hamas-Israel.
- Different ECB and fed tones could keep the euro under pressure in K4 2025.
The price of EUR / USD has expanded its decline to 1,1600 on Thursday in the middle of persistent political insecurity in France and the recovered dollar strength. In pairs, he remained imprisoned for 1,16505 at today’s European session as traders who digested cautious remarks from Fed officials.
–Are you interested in learning more about automated forex trading? See our detailed guide-
Domestic wind, especially during the French political crisis, is valid on the euro. Outgoing Prime Minister Lecorra tried to calm investors ensuring that President Macron would publish a new government within 48 hours. However, the lack of parliamentary majority and growing fiscal concerns remain unregulated.
Meanwhile, Germany’s latest data has strengthened the worse growth profile, and August industrial production drops 4.3%, and exports slipped 0.5%. It shows the dispute below the block. Although German trade surplus increased to 17.2 billion EUR, improvement has occurred in lower imports, not strong external demand.
Across the Atlantic, the American state shutdown enters its ninth day, delays key data issues. However, the minutes of the FOMC September meeting provided some direction. The overall tone is cautious with a divergent view of the pace of mitigation. The Fed New York President John Williams said the central bank could pull the labor market because inflation pressure gradually relieves. Markets expect to interrupt two more speeds by the end of the year, although Powell’s comment could have adjusted Outlook.
Despite an agreement on the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, the American dollar index (DKSI) gained at 99.00 due to geopolitical uncertainty that are driving a secure haven. Meanwhile, resistant American returns of the American cash register, ISM production and consumer confidence support Greenback.
On the other hand, the ECB is facing pressure in the middle of soft growth and inflation alleviation. The Eurozone GDP has acquired only 0.1% K / K, and stagnates the growth of the loan. The UOB Group Analysts say the “EUR / USD can consolidate between 1,1600 and 1,1660 in a short time, but it makes it available at 1,1570 still if the feeling is worsening.”
All in all, divergence in monetary policy and the growth path between Fed and ECB remains the dominant driver. Unless the eurozone economy shows stronger swing or American data significantly weak, EUR / USD will probably remain under pressure via K4 2025.
EUR / USD Price Technical analysis: Consolidation below 20th
The four-sea card for EUR / USD depicts mild support for a couple near the 1,1600, because RSI moved after the cover was hit. However, the 20-period of MA remains steep close to 1,1650, posing an obstacle for upside down.
–Are you interested in learning more about forex signals? See our detailed guide-
At obtaining acceptance above the 20-period, the price could pick up the purchase of swing and appear to test 1,1700. However, an interruption of 1,1600 could lead to 1,1575 support before 1,1500.
Looking for forex trading now? Invest in Ethorro!
67% of retail orders lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take a high risk of losing money.
