- Weekly forecast EUR / USD remains upside, stay above 1,1700.
- The weaker US dollar gives more support to euro due to Outlook FED policy and poor economic data.
- We now reflect our markets to ADP and NFP data together with food speech.
The price of EUR / USD has ended the moon with a solid muccal swing, slightly closing the week, which is the highest degree since September 2021. Years. The couple stated 2% weekly gain as the dollar saw a sharp decay in the middle of geopolitical relief, soft American pressed Fedes.
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What happened to EUR / USD last week?
The week began with intense market sailings, because the United States attacked three nuclear places Iran, which severely weighed to the euro and increased the dollar demand as well as the safe haven. However, the truce came before President Trump announced a truce between Iran and Israel. As a result, oil prices are, capital and euro, while the Safe dollar suffered losses.
Greenback’s sentiment deteriorated after the testimony Fed chair of Pismo before Congress. He maintained a cautious tone, signals that there is no hurry to reduce the rates. However, he acknowledged the influence of tariffs on inflation. These comments were challenged by President Trump, who publicly criticized the Fed chair and hinted to replace him before the end of the year. This raised concern about the credibility of Fed, resulting in weighing on the dollar and enhancing EUR / USD.
On Friday, the US Basic PCA price index collected 2.7% I / I, briefly above expectations. However, K1 GDP showed a contraction of 0.5% and June Prime Minister reading to 52.8, indicating slowing momentum. Durable data on the orders of goods remained asseted, but it was mainly due to one volatile component: aircraft orders.
Contrary, EU data remained stable with HCOB PMI to 50.2, reflecting stagnation in activities, but not contraction. Expectations around fiscal incentives plans provide long-term drip for the euro.
EUR / USD Key events next week
In the European market, the market will focus on data on Germany retail, together with information on HICP inflation. Moreover, CPI eurozone will also be key data to view.
From the US, key events include employment of ADP, Jolt, ISM PMIS, NFP and food speech. However, data in the labor market is more critical because Fed observes cooling signs to plan its facilitated policy. ADP is expected to increase, while the NFP is likely to continue its modest drop. In addition, the unemployment rate can be rising a bit.
EUR / USD Sunday technique Technical forecast: Likely return in the middle of reselling
The daily EUR / USD depicts a strong trend upside down, with eyes on further winnings. However, the price saw a minor return for profit on Friday on Friday. The withdrawal can continue to test the corrupt resilience about 1,1600. The RSI has reached a resale region, while the 20-day SMA is too far from the current price, which can run medium reversion.
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On upside, the price can continue the bull trend after a mild consolidation or withdrawal. The aim of the stream is located at 1,1800, forward of 1,2000. Every return to a couple looks corrective and it seems to be “purchasing on the DIP” opportunity.
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